Will the goal production of Round 17 continue (32 goals in the ten games; the highest of the season) or will this rounds games revert back to the low scoring affairs that have been the mark of the EPL season so far? In case you didn’t realize it, the EPL has been the lowest scoring of all the big pro leagues in Europe this year. Chances are this round will see many fewer goals than the last round where we saw 6 of the 10 games produce a total of four goals or more. While the holiday period produces some thrilling and very entertaining games year after year, they also tend to be low scoring affairs. The three rounds of games centered on those of New Year’s typically produce the fewest goals of the other rounds of the season.
Charlton 0:3 Liverpool
Xabi Alonso cashed in an early penalty (2nd) and Bellamy doubled the advantage in the 81st before Gerrard closed proceedings with another in the 87th. Liverpool has scored 11 goals in their last three in the league putting an end to the drought and slide up to 3rd.
Despite dominating the Addicks for most of the match Liverpool weren’t able to find the strike to settle the issue for 80 minutes and Charlton had a few chances to level before Bellamy’s goal. Don’t be surprised to see the Addicks move up the table when they get JFH and the Bent brothers back on form.
Newcastle 2:1 Watford
Obafemi Martins continued his hot hand getting the Magpies first on the day in the 48th and the match winner in the 84thth minute. Newcastle’s recovery (4 wins in their last 5) despite the horrifying injury list Roeder is dealing with is a pleasant surprise for the Toon army as they have moved to 12th in the table. Martins has been the motor fueling that fightback and now that Duff is able to put in quality minutes they have the look of a team on the rebound. minute after Bouazza had leveled for the Hornets in the 56
Reading 1:2 Blackburn
A defensive lapse exposed Friedel and Harper made it count for Reading in the 40th minute before McCarthy finally made one count for Rovers. McCarthy had three goals disallowed for offside before he got the leveler. Bentley got the match winner for Rovers in the 83rd with a stunning strike from distance high to the far post.
Arsenal 2:2 Portsmouth
Pompey put the Gunners down 2-0 before a response from Adebayor in the 57th and Gilberto Silva got the match back on level terms in the 59th. Deep inside Harry must feel this was two points lost on the day whether they were at the Emirates Stadium or not. Wenger’s youngsters had to produce a spirited fightback to salvage the point at home as they slipped farther behind the front runners surrendering 3rd to Liverpool in the process.
Wigan 0:1 Sheffield United
The hard working Blades challenged Wigan all day on their home turf in this one and the two managers exchanged angry words on more than one occasion during the match. Rob Hulse’s goal in the 45th was the difference maker. Jewel suggested the opening 45 was the worst half of football the Latics have produced at the JJB this season. That being the case he was fortunate they were still in it at the break. As I suggested at the end of last season any team that chose to rely on Emile Heskey would in the end be disappointed as Paul Jewel is finding out.
Aston Villa 0:1 Bolton
Gary Speed’s penalty in the 74th minute decided things in this closely fought contest. Many will say Villa were the better team on the day but bottom line, they weren’t able to find the quality finish to get it done.
Everton 2:3 Chelsea
The Toffees led this one at the break on a 37th minute penalty (yes, yet another PK goal) by Arteta as the Blues were less than their best in the opening 45. Ballack got the match level in the 48th and Yobo put Everton back on top in the 63rd. The Blues showed why their the champs with Lampard leveling in the 80th and Drogba getting the match winner in the 86th minute with an outrageous 40 yard volley for the win.
Man City 1:2 Tottenham
Spurs got on top early with unlikely goals (the first ever for both players) from Davenport (in the 15th minute) and Huddlestone (23rd) and hung on for their first win on the road. City pulled one back in the 63rd from Joey Barton but it wouldn’t be enough as City lost their first at home on the season. The win puts Tottenham 7th in the table.
West Ham 1:0 Man United
After weeks of turmoil and the tumult of the last week with Pardew being fired and replaced by Curbishley the Hammers had to face league leaders Man United. Not only were they being asked to defeat them in Curb’s first game in charge they had to overcome the favoritism of the on field officals who repeatedly rejected calling fouls or showing cards to Man United even when the offense was clear. Rooney screamed abuse directed to the officials more than once using that language that would get him arrested by the Vice Squad, then tried taking a lesson from Ronaldo in taking a dive attempting to win a free kick and Vidic repeatedly planted his elbow between the shoulder blades of West Ham players all without sanction. Vidic, it seemed, could commit the dismemberment of an opponent without a whistle so he kept right on doing it. To the Hammers go the credit for defeating United on the pitch despite the howlers from the officials. The Hammers played with a relish we haven’t seen from them in months and won the full points despite the officials attempt to assist Man U on the day. The loss drops United’s lead over Chelsea to 2pts and the victory by West Ham pulls Boro into the tussle at the bottom end of the table. Playing as they did today the Hammers won’t be there for long.
Fulham 2:1 M’Boro
Fulham took the lead in the 11th minute on a successful penalty from Helgusson and McBride’s 34th minute strike. Both goals were unlucky from the Boro perspective as the penalty was the result of inadvertant tangling of legs and McBride’s benefited from a subtle deflection off the chest of a Boro defender which contributed to it avoiding Schwarzer’s diving attempt at the save. That slight deflection provided the match winner for Fulham as Boro was only able to pull one back with a fine touch by Viduka in the 74th.
The Difference Maker So Far?
Looking at the season as it has played out on the pitch its pretty easy to spot what really separates the best (Man United and Chelsea) from the rest. For starters yes, Man U have scored far more goals than everyone else in the EPL but even more to their credit they have identical 7-1-1 records in both home and away games and that is a big deal. Very big. Only three teams have positive GOAL DIFFERENCE in contests away from their home pitch. An even bigger deal. Why hasn’t Tottenham been able to stay closer to the leaders? Another easy one, and the same reason as Spurs have actually equaled Man U in their home performance at 7-1-1 (+10 GD) while setting a horrid 1-3-5 record on the road with a -10 GD (the worst of any top 10 side). Man United is at +16 at Old Trafford and +12 on their travels. The only other team with a positive goal difference on the road (Chelsea is +7) is Arsenal at +2. Bolton has a goal difference of 0 on the road while all the rest of the 20 EPL teams are in negative territory when viewed with this measure of a teams quality.
Performance on the road is the real difference maker in the EPL and no stat tells you more about why thats the case than the goal difference . What is a surprise is that more of the top teams haven’t done better. However, it does tell you why there’s the top two and then the rest nestling together more than ten points behind second place Chelsea. And what creates that separation between them and the top two is that performance on the road.
Goal difference illustrates quality, home or away. The sometimes shocking disparity in goal difference home versus away is nearly inexplicable such as Spurs results so far or Liverpool currently 3rd in the table but at -4 on the road, while +15 at home.
Are the top two teams really that much better quality wise when playing away from the friendly confines of their home pitch then their pursuers? The answer is yes, they certainly have been and it is what separates them from the rest. Goal difference is an expression of that quality play whether their at home or not.
Until the chasers can get on the positive side of that measure they have only two chances to close the gap; slim and none.
Serie A
Inter’s winning streak goes on with a 2-0 victory over Messina and has reached a club record 9 consecutive wins in the league. Roma stays 2nd with Palermo 3rd.
Bundesliga
The German league winter break begins with Bremen holding the top spot on goal difference over Schalke. League play does not resume until Jan 26.
FIFA Club World Cup
Internacional of Brazil won the CWC with a 1-0 victory over Barcelona. The second year in a row that the CWC goes to a Brazilian club with a victory over the European champ. Egypt’s Al Ahly finished 3rd and had the best individual performance of the CWC by Aboutrika with his world class strikes defeating Club America of Mexico in the 3rd place match 2-1. Al Ahly also represented Africa in this competition and finished last in the 2005 finals. This year behind the play of Aboutrika and his clinical free kick goals Al Ahly came within a whisker of making the final match.
