With the World Cup opening less a month away here's some thoughts about what we may see from the US MNT. The group stage will be a difficult test with the US in one of the "groups of death." Italy is a favorite of many to go on to challenge for the Cup. The Czech Republic has a side that is likely to do the same and Ghana is much tougher competition than most realize.
Frankly, I don't expect the US to get past the group stage. The challenge they face could be compared to scaling Mt. Everest blindfolded. The fact that half of this team is MLS based tells me that yes, we have the numbers in terms of a much bigger player pool than ever before but lack the quality to succeed at this level of competition. Read on for why.
Yes, they won their qualifying group, the first time ever but I have to say the final two matches were really disappointing (3-0 loss to Costa Rica and 2-0 win over Panama). On the attack they were horrible in both and in the end its likely that Arena wishes that he'd kept his top side together for another run. A mental note here is that the squad for those final two games was entirely MLS based and the drop in quality with the European based players back with their clubs was obvious.
The quality of play in MLS and of the players themselves just isn't up to the level required for international competition. Seems to be a common thread and shortcoming of Arena's teams that they are less than "quality" on the attack and it doesn't really get much better as the years go by. Was 2002 just an aberration? Is that on Arena, or is it the quality of the players, pure and simple? If thats the case, why is that?
Yes, Arena has done a nice job getting more players capped and so forth, but has he really improved the quality of this team? What I'm driving at here is this: will they go to Germany and finish higher than they did in 2002 (8th)? I seriously doubt it. Remember, that finish resulted from them upsetting Portugal and then eliminating arch rival Mexico 2-0 in the knockout stage that put them in the quarterfinals where they dropped a closely fought match to Germany 1-0. Repeating that kind of performance just isn't likely.
Frankly, I really don't believe this team has the quality in the attack to get the job done against the teams in their group. Too many of those that looked to be the second wave and up and coming stars such as Twellman, Ching, Eddie Johnson and company are in for a big surprise: their not good enough. So we wait and dream of them having real success in back-to-back World Cups. I'm not saying they'll get blown away like in France '98 (where they scored only 1 goal, that by McBride), but I also do not believe they can repeat that 8th placed finish in Korea-Japan.
MLS has helped, yes. But it simply is not at the level it needs to be to really prepare the younger players for the world stage. I used to say it was good enough but the reality is, we need to see far more players from the U.S. playing in Europe's pro leagues. The competition and level of play, week after week, is far better for the future of the US MNT than anything else. And that is the bottom line.
In recent years MLS has been forcing proven, quality pro players out of their league (in many cases due to the salary cap) in favor of the young stars coming out of US colleges, and there are many of them to be sure. But, this youth move in favor of quality has actually reduced the level of play in MLS and essentially made it a super college league. The development of the young stars is limited and most of them would be far better served by going to Europe instead of playing in MLS if their long term goal is to play on a competitive side on the world's biggest stage.
MLS after ten years is quite simply disappointing. And I'm a longtime fan of the game and the league for that matter. I buy the Direct Kick package every year and have since it began, but I also haven't gotten my money's worth. I just want to see MLS really promote the game and improve the quality, which it has not done under Garber. Maybe I'm just spoiled by watching the EPL and La Liga or Serie A and recognizing that there probably isn't an MLS side that could avoid relegation in any of those leagues.
MLS apparently now favors yet another round of expansion (Toronto-amazing that its not Montreal) that will surely dilute the quality even farther. The best thing that college players that are looking to continue their career and excel on the pitch could do is to go to Europe and learn the game from the best. Since MLS isn't about to attract "the best" for some time and are far more interested in growing the number of teams than they are the quality of play, it'll remain that way. Period.
For those of us that actually realize United Soccer League's exist and play at a good level in its top leagues this gets doubly disappointing. For MLS to look past the USL's top teams and strong established franchises has always made me wonder whats really going on at times. They look past a Rochester, Seattle, Portland, Richmond and Charleston and drop a team in Utah for pete's sake. USL's single table arrangement in its pro leagues makes each and every match significant while MLS continues to slog thru a nearly meaningless regular season with its conference alignment.
I'm not saying Salt Lake was, or will be a bad move, but its just that you have to wonder WHY things like that happen, when both leagues claim to be promoting the growth of the game. As a non-insider and fan all I can say is I just don't get it.
Another piece of this story simply has to be what the players did back at the beginning of the qualifying campaign for Germany. If you missed it, the players went on strike and were locked out of camp while "replacement" players were called in to continue the preparation for the next round. In the end and after all the finger-pointing from both sides the players got a huge pay raise cashing in on their success in 2002. Will the fans see that pay dividends this time around or, to put that question in a different light will the players earn that raise?
A recent development that suggests they may already have is the most recent FIFA world rankings that has the US placed in the highest position ever; 4th. Most pundits acknowledge that is way out of line, but it is part of the story of the buildup. I can't help thinking that was simply a "marketing" effort by FIFA and a thinly veiled plan to increase viewership for ESPN/ABC which will carry all 64 matches of the World Cup and in HD to boot.
Frankly, I suspect there's more at work in all this than we, as fans, will ever know and thats probably a good thing. You know what they say; "if you saw how they make sausage you'd never eat it" and I suppose thats the case with this too.
Enjoy the soccer and the spectacle of the World Cup and realize the mountain the USMNT will need to climb to repeat the success of 2002.
